This is why you need to watch games and not rely solely on the advanced statistics.
1) Muzz/Doughty pairing has ALWAYS given up too many high quality scoring chances.
2) Muzz has mostly sucked and sucked royally this season, but his corsi is still great? Hmmm...eye test or corsi? Well, coach has publicly derided him and demoted him...eye test wins.
3) When Regehr got injured, for a good stretch of games we had the advanced staticians' wet dream defense: drew, muzz, mcnabb, greene, amart... Remember what happened? We lost like 8 straight games and gave up at least 1 power play goal per game.
Still don't get it?!?!? Then how bout....
4) Since Regehr has returned and been placed on the top pairing and the top pk unit, we have one of the best records in the NHL, and our GAA and PK% have been sparkling.
Admittedly, Regehr's limited puck moving/passing skills hurt the pairing's corsi (and it seems to be getting worse), and the aging vet is playing too many minutes, but he's our best option right now. Definitely better than dd/muzz.
- ToughD
Oi vey. Where do we start.
This is why you need to watch games
I have watched every single game this year. Every single one. I use stats to support theories and trends I see on the ice. Not vice versa. I have been following the team for 20+ years, writing about them for 3-4. I watch the games.
Every year. Every game.
Muzz has mostly sucked and sucked royally this season,
On pace for 40 points, best possession numbers on the team, second highest average time on ice. Leads our blueline corps in powerplay goals, powerplay points. 4th in blocked shots, 5th in hits, tied for 2nd in game winning goals.
How on earth can you sit here and tell me that he has "Sucked and sucked royally this season."
Sorry but you are flat. out. wrong.
1) Muzz/Doughty pairing has ALWAYS given up too many high quality scoring chances.
We have these numbers are War on Ice my friend. When Muzzin is on the ice the Kings allow LESS high scoring chances. Likewise with Doughty.
Shooting rates for opposing teams when
Muzzin is on the ice go as follows
down low: .826
Mid range/slot: .833
Point and beyond: .857
When Muzzin is NOT on the ice, here are the shot rates:
down low: .895
Mid range/slot: .896
Point and beyond: .887
So what you are saying is blatantly false, and the numbers prove that. Doughty and Muzzin give up less high scoring chances.
You want to do Regehr for comparison? Okay.
When Regehr is on the ice
down low: .879
Mid range/slot:
1.01
Point and beyond:
.951
When Regehr is NOT on the ice, here are opposing team shot rates.
down low: .866
Mid range/slot: .86
Point and beyond: .845
Muzzin's numbers from mid range, and/or the slot, are VASTLY superior. 1.01 vs. .833.
Not enough info? Alright. Pure scoring chance numbers.
Jake Muzzin is 2nd on the team amongst regular defenseman in scoring chances against. He would lead the team if Sekera were not here. 23.0 over 60.
Regehr? Worst on the team amongst active defenseman with 24.9 over 60. Only Martinez is worse off.
Which brings me to the next point. The stretch of eight games in which you speak of has so little to do with Jake Muzzin.
You said we had "advanced staticians' wet dream defense"
Except the problem here is that Martinez is having an awful year. So is Greene. McBain was the extra player in that scenario and he is nearly as bad defensively as Regehr. McNabb has also had a season of high highs and low lows and was scratched in a large number of those games in favor of Jeff Schultz and McBain.
I went back and checked the box scores on the losing streak you are talking about.
The Kings started that terrible stretch on December 12th. Regehr was in the lineup during that time. They lost 3 in a row in Canada. Came home and won 3 of 4, and then went on to lost 5 of the next 6. Jeff Schultz dressed in the stretch of 5. As did McBain over McNabb. Muzzin and Doughty were not the problem. They were part of a larger TEAM problem. That stretch you are referencing was also Quick's worst stretch as a pro goaltender. He had 10 games under .900 save percentage. Again, Muzzin and Doughty paired up was not the problem.
Look, I get it, Muzzin can make glaring turnovers. This is known. But the good FAR outweighs the bad. Some of the numbers and points you bring up are 100% incorrect. Say eye test all you want. I've watched him for years. He makes fantastic outlets, and overall plays a very safe game which allows Doughty to do his thing. With an immobile and poor puck moving Regehr paired up with Doughty, DD cannot carry the puck as frequently without fear of being caught up ice or without a capable partner to back him up. The outlets aren't as fast, aren't as crisp, and that doesn't allow Doughty to jump into the play and capitalize on rushes. Again, it also limits his carry rate due to him having to play a more defensive posture to make up for 44.
If you are going to come at Muzzin you better come with a more convincing argument, because he has been very good this year and there are A LOT of things that help support that. I think the recognition that he makes bad turnovers is fairly well known, however he does way more than that to help this team be a winning team. You say eye test to help criticize him, I say eye test to help better understand the excellent little things that Muzzin brings to the table to make this team better.
